Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 13.141076 15.995485 19.168105 22.934382 27.261066 32.053527 37.740022
2026-01-25 8.778155 12.353917 16.771297 22.536017 29.759747 38.408927 49.434989
2026-02-01 6.586827 10.423908 15.574129 22.789407 32.413117 44.573262 60.837431
2026-02-08 4.945526 8.731036 14.209835 22.376872 33.860673 49.027883 70.110663
2026-02-15 3.725997 7.319387 12.907263 21.726373 34.726144 52.571199 78.206289
2026-02-22 3.098807 6.675968 12.586374 22.361240 37.323252 58.491804 89.681535
2026-03-01 2.438342 5.805932 11.739438 22.037080 38.409183 62.275425 98.319576
2026-03-08 1.979952 5.187654 11.189104 22.070914 39.965688 66.742005 108.052239
2026-03-15 1.497515 4.384282 10.165162 21.164906 39.923847 68.781667 114.307947
2026-03-22 1.284290 4.103144 10.050561 21.783195 42.333710 74.587685 126.290848
2026-03-29 1.077543 3.776576 9.788083 22.089488 44.218290 79.642412 137.319848
2026-04-05 0.915006 3.511368 9.602088 22.500740 46.281421 85.041792 149.047049
2026-04-12 0.777178 3.287077 9.503847 23.141011 48.915189 91.687181 163.309576
2026-04-19 0.597559 2.871361 8.907813 22.742492 49.696358 95.408938 173.245709
2026-04-26 0.487407 2.625785 8.655571 22.997901 51.656786 101.138003 186.547977
2026-05-03 0.370817 2.295387 8.121366 22.582401 52.315185 104.684348 196.451485
2026-05-10 0.272105 1.969509 7.518922 21.927183 52.440398 107.291296 204.886169
2026-05-17 0.230280 1.863703 7.495230 22.566657 55.116458 114.416676 220.982844
2026-05-24 0.173197 1.640894 7.080931 22.240149 55.834002 118.111148 231.474593
2026-05-31 0.135211 1.486120 6.832810 22.274228 57.270242 123.128062 244.335733
2026-06-07 0.091537 1.244787 6.237823 21.361619 56.661058 124.395218 250.833214
2026-06-14 0.076608 1.185535 6.243633 21.984419 59.333155 131.775961 268.060414
2026-06-21 0.060941 1.100578 6.136024 22.292937 61.340573 137.989977 283.433627